September 30, 2008

The Future of the NBA: International Expansion

Last week, I chose to examine a disturbing and recurring story that illuminated the exploitation of young and talented African soccer players. In doing so, I discovered that while the situation has been dismal and unsolvable for years, some prominent players and organizations were finally beginning to take positive steps in the right direction. This week, however, I found it impossible to ignore the current economic crisis, specifically that the House had rejected the Bush administration's bailout plan. As a result, I decided to attempt to relate the situation to the sports world, and was able to do so through recent news regarding the NBA's international expansion. With such an economic downturn, it seems clear that the NBA must renew its efforts to increase international marketing, with the goal of eventual expansion. As the crisis begins to seep down to the people, spending on luxury items such as basketball tickets is sure to fall, leading the NBA to look elsewhere for revenue, such as television markets. Following the vast successes of the Beijing Olympics, moreover, interest in the NBA is rapidly increasing (pictured left), especially in China, where the NBA is already immensely popular. It follows, then, that the 2012 Olympics in London should provide another spectacular venue and hopefully demonstrate the virtues of the NBA to British citizens, creating a fresh, new market for television and merchandise sales. In considering this pertinent topic, I encountered and commented on two different blogs. The first post that I responded to, "Basketball Goes All Out to Score in the UK," was written by Shakthi Kumar from Chennai, India, who creates multiple entries daily in his blog, "Basketball Updates, History, and Recaps." In his entry, he examines the attempts of the NBA to win over England as new market source of revenue. The second post that I responded to, "U.S. is Likely to Win Gold, but the NBA is the Big Winner," by Bob Kravitz, a well-renowned sports columnist for the Indianapolis Star since 2000, focused instead on the developments of NBA marketing in China, a nation where NBA support is expected to continue to grow. In addition to publishing my comments directly on the authors' respective blogs, I have also posted these comments below.

"Basketball Goes All Out to Score in the UK"
I would like to thank you for a thoughtful and provocative post regarding the changing dynamics of the NBA, specifically regarding its attempts to increase its popularity in new markets. You have clearly researched the subject, providing pertinent examples of the way in which Commissioner Stern (below, right) and the NBA are trying to implement their product overseas. I was impressed with the way in which you approached the subject, by first contrasting the international expansion of the English Premier League with the international expansion of the NBA. I find it interesting that of the NBA's annual $600 million revenue overseas, the UK provides such a small proportion. I understand that most/all of the sports attention is focused on the Premier League, but I am surprised that basketball "has failed to capture the public's imagination," when it seems to be quickly increasing in popularity in other parts of Europe, including places where soccer is prominent as well. I wonder if you have any further thoughts on the subject? In any case, I certainly agree with you, then, that the upcoming 2012 Olympic Games in London will be the greatest opportunity for Commissioner Stern to attract a following for the sport. It undoubtedly seemed to be effective during the Beijing Games, although China has certainly had an NBA following for quite some time, including a marketable star of their own in Yao Ming. I was actually surprised to learn that there had been prior attempts to implement basketball into Britain's consciousness, although I suppose such attempts were not well publicized because of their failures. What really piqued my interest in this post, however, was the latter portion, in which you cite Stern's concerns regarding the current economic crisis, which, as I'm sure you know, has taken a turn for the worse today, with the House's rejection of the bailout plan. Clearly, sports are not the primary area of concern with regards to the crisis, but it is interesting to consider that if/when ticket sales are adversely affected; expanding television markets will become more of a necessity than a desire. Obviously, Britain would provide a very large market, both for television and for merchandise sales, depending on whether or not the upcoming Heat-Nets game has some success in stirring interest. I wonder, however, if you have considered that while the economic crisis will force Stern to expand markets, it will likely also have a negative effect in the British economy, consequently making it difficult for basketball, a new form of "luxury spending," to gain any traction.

"U.S. is Likely to Win Gold, but the NBA is the Big Winner"
I first want to thank you for your insightful post regarding the future of international basketball. It is clear, as you stated, that the development of the NBA is heading in the direction of foreign markets, none of which are bigger or more prepared for the big stage than the nation that just finished hosting the biggest basketball tournament in the world. While it was important on many levels for the US to come away from these Olympics with a gold medal, I completely agree with you that the more important result was the increased exposure of NBA stars to an emerging market. Most notably, the Chinese market is, as you explain, experiencing unprecedented growth, leading to a situation in which "the Chinese are looking at the NBA product as a way to spend their increasing reserves of disposable income." This important characteristic, combined with the exponentially growing interest in the sport (as you illustrate with NBA.com/China as the most popular sports site in China) and the recent creation of NBA China, demonstrate the inevitability of increased NBA exposure in the market. However, I am somewhat hesitant regarding your prediction that within ten years the NBA will have a franchise in China, as well potential franchises across Europe. Of course, the last decade signified an incredible increase in the foreign talent pool, especially when considering it has been eight years since the US took Olympic Gold. Indeed, international interest in the game is rapidly increasing. Still, the NBA has yet to play a regular season game abroad, much less consider the notion of adding a team. The traveling expenses would not only be substantial, but there would also be many players unhappy with their new arrangements, having to travel tens of hours between games, not to mention having to adapt to foreign cultures. Additionally, it seems that with the recent depreciation of the dollar relative to the Euro, the NBA will have a hard enough time as it is trying to compete with European leagues for players, as we have seen with the recent departures of Josh Childress and Carlos Delfino, among others. Moreover, superstars such as LeBron and Kobe have seriously entertained the idea of leaving for Europe for at least one season, based on rumors of $50 million offers. With the advent of the current economic crisis, it is more important than ever for the NBA to expand its markets abroad, and I agree with you that the Olympics have done so quite effectively. I remain, however, skeptical of the speed with which a worldwide league could be created.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Josh,

I find that you have very insightfully and succinctly analyzed the current state of international basketball. While in one of my recent posts I looked at what I think the NBA should be doing, you very accurately and realistically looked at what the NBA currently is doing. You properly set up your blog post responses with a very strong contextualizing paragraph. By relating the issue to the current economic crisis, you give it a strong sense of immediacy. Further, by mentioning the 2012 Olympics as a point of reference, you make a strong point that I had not previously considered. In my analysis of the NBA’s potential expansion/integration into Europe, I looked at Europe as a single entity. I like that you have taken this to a more specific level and discussed the issue as it pertains to a single (and obviously very important) country – the UK. The comparison of the NBA to the English Premier League (in your first comment) contributes strongly to your argument. As arguably two of the strongest international sports in the world, there is certainly a lot that can be learned (for both sides) from the international business models of soccer and basketball.

I feel that you lay out your best analysis in discussing the pitfalls that will likely keep the NBA from expanding to China and Europe within ten years (in your second post comment). I agree that this goal seems relatively unreasonable given the current basketball infrastructure in China and the fact that a regular season game has never been played overseas. Your analysis of the difficulties of international travel is on point; I too see it very likely that American-born players would be unhappy in frequently traveling to play games in Europe. While playing some games in the U.S. and some games abroad would certainly boost players’ international marketing prospects, it is the kind of change that many would be hard pressed to embrace simply because it is so drastic. I would suggest that you expand your use of embedded links in your blog. Given the wealth of information available about sports, even linking the names of the players that you mention to their player page on ESPN or a league specific site (nba.com, nfl.com and mlb.com) can be a helpful interactive tool. I believe that even though you will likely not be including links in your comments when you post them on other people’s blogs, it is nonetheless effective to add links in these posts on your blog.

Overall though, I commend you on a very nice investigation of global sports business.

 
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